Small Elephant, Big Elephant and Grass: Iran-USA and Iraq after Suleymani

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Trump’s abandonment of the nuclear deal has made a crisis with Iran likely if not inevitable. Iran is squeezed economically and needed to make Trump uncomfortable. He was hard on Iran through sanctions but soft on Tehran’s military moves. This created an environment for miscalculation. Killing of Soleimani looks like an ovrreaction. Now it’s difficult if not impossible to reach a deal though absence of dialogue may lead to new crises even war neither party wants or needs. They need, among other things, a good mediator, a back-channel diplomacy, modesty and care for the language they use. Future of Iraq, Iranian regime’s survival and Trump’s reelection prospects may all be influenced by the course and outcome of the struggle.  

Full text in Turkish:

Shanlı Bahadır Koch

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